Saturday, September 7, 2013

Polls wrong on electorates in NSW and QLD

Newspoll and aggregated state based polling by Pollbludger wrongly predicted specific electoral results in 30 per cent of cases, mainly in NSW and Queensland.

Newspoll results from polls taken in late August showed the Coalition leading in 17 electorates across Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland.  In fact, four poll results incorrectly predicted wins to the Coalition and two electorates were too close to call on Saturday night.

Newspoll results predicted that the New South Wales electorates of Kingsford-Smith, Parramatta and Greenway and Queensland electorate of Griffith would fall to the Coalition, but all four seats were retained by the ALP.

The seats of Eden-Monaro and Reid in New South Wales, on the basis of Newspoll opinion polls were predicted to fall to the Coalition, but on Saturday night, the results in both seats were too close to call.

The state-based results aggregated by Pollbludger incorrectly predicted results for seats in WA, SA, Tasmania and Queensland - with results in NT and Victoria still too close to call.

Overall, the polls incorrectly predicted the final results in 30 percent of the electorates polled.

The election results as tallied by close of counting Saturday night delivered surprise results in the seats of Greenway, Lyons, Capricornia and Petrie - as well as the seat of Melbourne.

The ALP held onto the marginal seat of Greenway, against controversial candidate Jaymes Diaz, but unexpectedly lost three seats in Tasmania, including Lyons, and two in Queensland, Capricornia and Petrie.  The ALP was also expected to pick up the seat of Melbourne, which has been retained by the Greens.

The seats of McEwen, Lingiari, Eden-Monaro, Reid, Fairfax and Indi were still too close to call.

The Coalition has gained at least 16 seats - with four more possibly falling its way and two seats to be decided between independents and the Coalition.  The ALP has lost at least 14 seats and gained none.

Pollbludger predicted for ALP:

NSW  -8
Vic     -3 ; +1
QLD  +3
WA    +1
SA       0
Tas     -2
NT       0        
Overall:  ALP lose 8 seats

Actual: ALP lost at least 14 seats with 4 too close to call.

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